Projects
Projects: Projects for Investigator |
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| Reference Number | NIA_SSEN_0030 | |
| Title | Whole-System Growth Scenario Modelling | |
| Status | Completed | |
| Energy Categories | Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis) 100%; | |
| Research Types | Applied Research and Development 100% | |
| Science and Technology Fields | SOCIAL SCIENCES (Business and Management Studies) 30%; AREA STUDIES 40%; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 30%; |
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| UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation | Systems Analysis related to energy R&D 100% | |
| Principal Investigator |
Project Contact No email address given Scottish and Southern Energy plc |
|
| Award Type | Network Innovation Allowance | |
| Funding Source | Ofgem | |
| Start Date | 01 October 2017 | |
| End Date | 01 April 2019 | |
| Duration | ENA months | |
| Total Grant Value | £225,000 | |
| Industrial Sectors | Power | |
| Region | Scotland | |
| Programme | Network Innovation Allowance | |
| Investigators | Principal Investigator | Project Contact , Scottish and Southern Energy plc (100.000%) |
| Industrial Collaborator | Project Contact , Scottish and Southern Energy plc (0.000%) |
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| Web Site | https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/NIA_SSEN_0030 |
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| Objectives | The Scottish Government is formulating its energy policy, and as part of this process have suggested the identification of three representative parts of Scotland in which they can explore the optimal solution for meeting the needs of these communities and associated businesses. This will include consideration of gas networks; electrification of transport; fuel poverty; and local energy aspirations. In response, we propose to: 1.Develop a methodology for undertaking a whole system assessment of the energy needs of a particular area, including:a)Stakeholder Engagement approachb)Local generation and demand scenariosc)Existing asset condition and replacement needsd)Investment options within and outwith the distribution network2.Develop a methodology for selecting the optimal solution3.Provide appropriate visibility to stakeholders4.Test these methodologies in the following three areas:a)Fort Williamb)Dundeec)IslayThese diverse areas will require us to examine the impact of multiple factors, such as:Extension (or contraction) of the gas network, altering electricity demand through gas substitution for heating; and the implications of this for network constraintsAssociated transmission constraint and adjacent distribution networksResilience requirements, especially in areas with high dependence on electricityLocal energy policies, aspirations, challenges and investmentsExpansion of small scale renewables, storage, co-generation and heat pumpsThe ability of local energy markets in a specific area (such as peer to peer energy trading) to alter patterns of supply and demandUneven load growth in urban areas, with population shifts and new housing developments impacting specific areas, requiring a holistic view of energy supply and local developmentOur obligations to serve the entire community, including those in fuel poverty, using vulnerability mappingImpact of new central government encouragement and support for large and small scale battery storageIncreasing uptake of EVs, including clustering effects, with a target date of 2040 recently announced for the withdrawal of petrol and diesel vehicles from the UK market and 2032 in ScotlandMedium to long term national policy options, modelled according to National Grids Future Energy ScenariosContinuing development of large scale, distribution-connected onshore renewable generation and the retirement of transmission-connected thermal generation The complete project will:Devise a methodology for local engagement that informs both the investment decisions of the DSO and of local decision-makers and other energy network owners to maximise the likelihood of investments and decisions that support an optimal whole system outcomeDevise a methodology for whole-system energy scenario modelling which includes electricity, water and gas; distributed energy resources; EV uptake and other transport issues; housing and infrastructure development plans; and the Future Energy ScenariosUsing the methodology, create a detailed, ground-up model of Generation and Demand growth scenarios from the present day to the year 2040, covering the distribution network served by specific Grid Supply Points in the three nominated areas of Scotland, from the Transmission/Distribution interface down to the 33kV levelLook beyond the current project pipeline of development for each technology considered, by using the National Grid Future Energy Scenarios as the basis of longer term modellingModel the impact of the intentions and aspirations of wider local stakeholders, including the Scottish Government, local authorities and industries, and the wider communities within the areas concerned, especially the development of housing and infrastructureAssess the effects of developments such as GD Network extension on power flows, power import/export at the T/D interface, system stability and balancing services; similarly, the effects of planned developments by other infrastructure providers such as water and telecoms utilitiesOverlay the results on our existing models of the network, and ask where flexible resources can be used. Use experience gained in previous projects (such as SAVE and NTVV), together with CMZ and Active Network Management deployments, to identify how these can provide option value and reduce total system costs over the range of future scenariosDevelop a methodology for identifying the optimal holistic development strategy for the area concernedIdentify the events and conditions which would trigger reinforcement investment and the optimum time to begin those investments in the four Future Energy ScenariosAssess the risks posed by increasing reliance on unconventional assets and virtual resources (such as aggregated demand response), to system stability and quality of service. Examine the failure modes and effects of these resources, when used in combination with other assets in the three areas concernedDocument the methodology used in the modelling so that it can be repeated in other areas and the models updated over time as changes occur 1 Understand the possible patterns of change over a two-decade horizon in the distribution networks served by three GSPs in the nominated areas2 Create a whole system modelling methodology, and subsequently three specific area models, for anticipating the impact of these changes and the options for responding to them, in various local Future Energy Scenarios3 Demonstrate a methodology that allows the two-way transfer of knowledge and understanding between network operators and those that make investment decisions in the areas served by the network, to facilitate efficient whole system planning4 Apply learning from projects in other regions to assess their value for reducing overall system costs and risks in the three areas, and to identify investment triggers for network improvements | |
| Abstract | The complete project will: Devise a methodology for local engagement that informs both the investment decisions of the DSO and of local decision-makers and other energy network owners to maximise the likelihood of investments and decisions that support an optimal whole system outcome Devise a methodology for whole-system energy scenario modelling which includes electricity, water and gas; distributed energy resources; EV uptake and other transport issues; housing and infrastructure development plans; and the Future Energy Scenarios Using the methodology, create a detailed, ground-up model of Generation and Demand growth scenarios from the present day to the year 2040, covering the distribution network served by specific Grid Supply Points in the three nominated areas of Scotland, from the Transmission/Distribution interface down to the 33kV level Look beyond the current project pipeline of development for each technology considered, by using the National Grid Future Energy Scenarios as the basis of longer term modelling Model the impact of the intentions and aspirations of wider local stakeholders, including the Scottish Government, local authorities and industries, and the wider communities within the areas concerned, especially the development of housing and infrastructure Assess the effects of developments such as GD Network extension on power flows, power import/export at the T/D interface, system stability and balancing services; similarly, the effects of planned developments by other infrastructure providers such as water and telecoms utilities Overlay the results on our existing models of the network, and ask where flexible resources can be used. Use experience gained in previous projects (such as SAVE and NTVV), together with CMZ and Active Network Management deployments, to identify how these can provide option value and reduce total system costs over the range of future scenarios Develop a methodology for identifying the optimal holistic development strategy for the area concerned Identify the events and conditions which would trigger reinforcement investment and the optimum time to begin those investments in the four Future Energy Scenarios Assess the risks posed by increasing reliance on unconventional assets and virtual resources (such as aggregated demand response), to system stability and quality of service. Examine the failure modes and effects of these resources, when used in combination with other assets in the three areas concerned Document the methodology used in the modelling so that it can be repeated in other areas and the models updated over time as changes occur | |
| Publications | (none) |
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| Final Report | (none) |
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| Added to Database | 15/12/22 | |
